The State of Painting in 2026: A Data-Driven Industry Report
Published July 2026
Download the full 2026 State of the Painting Industry Report (PDF)
Quick answer: The U.S. painting contractor industry (NAICS 238320) has 38,036 employer firms generating an estimated $27.86 billion in receipts, per the 2022 Economic Census and a related EPA analysis. Painters earn a median $48,660/year ($23.40/hour), with 4% employment growth projected through 2034. The broader remodeling market painters depend on is projected to grow just 0.5% year-over-year by mid-2027, according to Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies — a slowdown, not a boom.
How big is the U.S. painting industry?
| Metric | Figure | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employer firms (2022) | 38,036 | U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Economic Census | High |
| Employer establishments (2022) | 38,153 | U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Economic Census | High |
| Employer-firm receipts | $27.86 billion | EPA analysis of Census data | High, different universe than firm count |
| Employees (EPA analysis universe) | 187,185 | EPA analysis of Census data | High |
| Current annual revenue growth rate | Not found | — | No reliable figure exists |
| Occupational employment growth, 2024-2034 | 4% | Bureau of Labor Statistics | High (occupational, not industry revenue) |
NAICS 238320 (Painting and Wall Covering Contractors) is the closest official category, but it blends residential, commercial, and wall-covering work, and excludes solo operators without employees. There is no single government-verified "total size of the U.S. painting market" figure — anyone citing one number as definitive is oversimplifying.
What does a painting business actually cost to run?
No nationally representative figure exists for typical net profit margin. Two industry sources disagree by a wide margin:
| Source | Margin Estimate | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| American Painting Contractor | 45% (target: 50%) | Industry advisor benchmark, not a survey |
| ServiceTitan (Guide 1) | 10-30% net margin | Company guide |
| ServiceTitan (Guide 2) | 20-50% "typical" | Company guide |
These figures conflict enough that we're not presenting a single average as fact. What's better documented is project-level cost, from Angi's 2026 guides:
| Project Type | Average Cost | Typical Range | Labor Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interior room | ~$1,100 | $400-$1,600 | 60-90% of cost |
| Exterior (whole house) | ~$3,177 | $1,819-$4,551 | Priced at $1.50-$4/sq ft |
Professional labor typically runs $20-$50/hour; paint runs $20-$70/gallon depending on type.
How often do homeowners repaint, and how do they choose a contractor?
Repainting frequency (Angi, 2026 guidance):
| Area | Typical Interval |
|---|---|
| High-traffic interior rooms | 2-5 years |
| Low-traffic interior rooms | 5-10+ years |
| Exterior (general) | 5-10 years |
| Wood siding specifically | 3-7 years |
How homeowners choose a contractor (Modernize, 2021 survey):
- 53% rely on friend/family referrals
- 37% check online ratings and reviews before hiring
Review behavior (BrightLocal, 2025 survey of 1,026 U.S. adults):
- 96% are open to writing a business review
- 46% think a review might look fake under certain circumstances — today's consumer checks more carefully than in past years
The likely customer journey: referral or awareness → local search → reviews → quote → selection. We won't assign precise percentages to each painting-specific step, since no current survey supports that exact breakdown.
How do painting contractors actually get customers?
The strongest signal: existing/referral relationships dominate. A Modernize contractor survey (not painting-specific, and somewhat dated) found existing/returning clients made up 37% of leads, with referrals closing at 45% versus 3-12% for other lead sources.
Google explicitly lists painters as an eligible category for Local Services Ads, its pay-per-lead product for home services — local search is a real, deliberate acquisition channel for this trade.
What we could not verify: average digital marketing spend among painting contractors specifically. Industry blogs cite revenue percentages, but without transparent methodology we're not presenting one as fact.
What licenses and regulations apply to painting contractors?
Licensing: No single national license exists. Requirements vary by state, county, and city (SBA). California, for example, has a specific C-33 Painting and Decorating Contractor classification — but check your own state's requirements directly.
EPA Lead Rule (RRP) — the most concrete regulatory requirement in this industry:
| Requirement | Detail |
|---|---|
| Applies to | Paid work disturbing paint in pre-1978 housing or child-occupied facilities |
| Firm status required | EPA-certified (or state-authorized equivalent) |
| Applies to solo operators? | Yes, even sole proprietorships |
| Threshold | Disturbing 6+ sq ft interior or 20+ sq ft exterior painted surface |
| Certification validity | 5 years |
| Effective since | April 22, 2010 |
OSHA standards that apply directly to painting work:
| Standard | Covers | Key limit |
|---|---|---|
| 29 CFR 1926.62 | Lead exposure | Action level 30 μg/m³; PEL 50 μg/m³ (8-hr TWA) |
| 29 CFR 1926.103 | Respiratory protection | Incorporates 1910.134 |
| 29 CFR 1926.1053 | Ladders | Load capacity, stability, securing |
| 29 CFR 1926.451 | Scaffolding | Must support 4x max intended load |
Are painting contractors using AI and other technology?
No painting-specific adoption data exists. Two broader home-service surveys offer directional context only:
| Survey | Sample | AI Usage | Top Use Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housecall Pro, 2026 | 248 home-service pros | 48% active users | 52% for customer communication |
| ServiceTitan, 2026 | 1,000 residential contractors | ~25% active users | 74% see it as valuable in principle |
Neither survey is painting-specific — both should be read as directional signals about the broader trade, not painting-industry fact.
Color visualization tools are well-documented on the manufacturer side: Benjamin Moore's Color Portfolio app (3,500+ colors, ColorReader device matching) and Sherwin-Williams' professional visualization tools are both real, currently available products. What we don't have is a verified figure for what percentage of contractors actually use them in the field.
What do painters earn, and is there a labor shortage?
The strongest-sourced numbers in this entire report, from the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook:
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Median annual wage | $48,660 |
| Median hourly wage | $23.40 |
| Total employment | 342,200 |
| Projected growth, 2024-2034 | 4% |
| Annual job openings | ~13,000 |
Labor shortage/turnover: No current, painting-specific figure exists. American Painting Contractor's 2018 survey (too dated for 2026 use) found 35% of contractors cited hiring/retention as their top challenge. BLS JOLTS shows construction's overall 2025 quit rate at 1.8% — useful context, but not a painter-specific measure.
What's the outlook for painting through 2028?
Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies (LIRA) is the strongest forward-looking source available:
| Forecast Date | Projection |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 2.1% YoY growth mid-2026, slowing to 1.6% by year-end; ~$518B total spending by end of 2026 |
| July 2026 (updated) | Growth slowing further to ~0.5% YoY by Q2 2027; ~$519B total spending through mid-2027 |
Harvard cites weak housing sales, permitting slowdowns, and economic uncertainty as the main drags. The takeaway for painters: a large underlying market, still growing in nominal terms, but at a meaningfully slower rate than in recent years — not a boom, not a contraction.
What This Report Deliberately Doesn't Claim
Several commonly repeated painting-industry statistics were left out because no transparent, current, nationally representative source could verify them:
- A single, precise total market revenue figure beyond the Census/EPA employer-firm data
- One agreed-upon average profit margin
- An exact percentage breakdown of how painting customers specifically find contractors
- Painting-specific digital marketing spend
- Painting-specific software/technology adoption rates
- A current, painting-specific labor shortage or turnover percentage
Where the data doesn't exist, we say so rather than filling the gap with an invented number.
Sources
U.S. Census Bureau (2022 Economic Census) · U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2026 Economic Analysis; RRP Program) · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Outlook Handbook; JOLTS) · U.S. Small Business Administration · California Contractors State License Board · Occupational Safety and Health Administration (29 CFR 1926.62, 1926.103, 1926.1053, 1926.451) · Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies (LIRA, Jan. and July 2026) · American Painting Contractor · Angi (2026 Cost Guides) · Modernize · BrightLocal (2025 Local Consumer Review Survey) · Housecall Pro (2026 AI Survey) · ServiceTitan (2026 AI Survey and Painting Business Guide) · Benjamin Moore · Sherwin-Williams
This report is published by Mighty Sites, a platform that helps local service businesses get found online. Last updated July 2026.